Alemanha no epicentro da crise do euro

Público — EUA acusam Alemanha de prejudicar o crescimento económico mundial:

«No fundamental, o departamento liderado por Jack Lew - secretário do Tesouro - afirma que a Alemanha optou por um modelo de contenção da procura interna e de aposta forte nas exportações, o que fez com que a sua balança comercial atingisse um excedente superior ao da própria China no ano passado.

"O ritmo anémico de crescimento da procura interna na Alemanha e a sua dependência das exportações dificultaram a retoma, numa altura em que muitos países estavam pressionados (...) a realizar severos processos de ajustamento. O resultado foi uma tendência deflacionária para a zona euro e também para a economia mundial", lê-se no relatório.»

Diário Económico — FMI do lado americano nas críticas à Alemanha:

«O Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) junta-se ao Tesouro norte-americano nas críticas à política orçamental da Alemanha demasiado restritiva e que impede a zona euro, e em particular os países mais afectados pela crise, de uma transição mais suave no ajustamento que está a realizar.»

The Financial Times (editorial) — Europe’s flirtation with deflation — US is right to criticise Germany on its economic policy:

«The eurozone’s slow march towards what some see as Japanese-style deflation began in crisis-hit countries, where companies cut prices to counter chronically feeble demand. Germany should help its weaker partners during this difficult transition, cutting taxes and letting wages rise. German workers would have more cash to spend on imports, some of which would come from countries such as Spain, Greece and Italy. Yet Berlin has repeatedly ignored this prescription. As the US Treasury notes, in 2012 Germany’s nominal current account surplus was larger than China’s.

While fiscal expansion in Germany is desirable, it will not, on its own, rescue the rest of the eurozone from a lengthy depression. There is only so much money that Germans can spend on an extra holiday in Rhodes or a new designer bag made in Milan. Saving the eurozone from deflation requires a concerted effort among its institutions, starting with the European Central Bank.»

naked capitalism — Yanis Varoufakis: The US Treasury is Right About Germany’s Eurozone Policies: Here is Why:

«Before the Euro Crisis, Germany and the rest of the surplus Eurozone countries had a large Current Account surplus both toward the rest of the Eurozone and towards the rest of the world. A large portion of the surplus countries’ profits (due to these net exports) were rushing back to the Eurozone Periphery thus fuelling consumer booms and real estate bubbles. During that period, savings (S) exceeded investment (I) in the surplus countries while the opposite held true in the Periphery (since capital was flowing freely to the Periphery in the form of ‘investments’ that helped aggregate investment there dwarfed local savings).

Following the Euro Crisis, and the collapse of the Periphery’s aggregate demand (as a result of both the sudden reversal of the capital flows and the austerity measures taken), investment in the Periphery collapsed (sometimes to negative levels). Thus, suddenly, the Periphery mimicked the surplus countries in that savings exceeded investment there too (S>I). At the same time, imports into the Periphery subsided (courtesy of the sharp recession) and so the Periphery’s Current Account deficit narrowed (e.g. Greece) or was even transformed into a surplus (e.g. Spain).»